NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARPB ISU
Points 58.1 93.0
Total Points   151.1
Points From 2-Pointers 18.4 51.5
Points From 3-Pointers 26.2 25.1
Points From Free Throws 13.5 16.5
Shooting ARPB ISU
Field Goals Made 17.9 34.1
Field Goals Attempted 50.1 62.8
Field Goal % 35.8% 54.3%
2 Pointers Made 9.2 25.7
2 Pointers Attempted 21.6 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 42.6% 65.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 28.5 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 13.5 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 23.3
Free Throw % 75.0% 70.8%
Ball Control ARPB ISU
Rebounds 25.9 41.3
Rebounds - Defensive 20.1 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 5.8 12.7
Turnovers 16.9 7.2
Blocked Shots 1.1 4.2
Steals 3.9 9.7
Fouls 16.8 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARPB ISU
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 60.9 77.5
% of Possessions with ARPB ISU
2 Point Attempt 27.2% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 35.9% 27.4%
Player Fouled 20.9% 23.4%
Turnover 23.4% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 13.5% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARPB ISU
Shot Blocked 6.7% 2.3%
Offensive Rebound 16.8% 38.8%