NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARPB AFA
Points 69.8 80.8
Total Points   150.6
Points From 2-Pointers 26.1 35.2
Points From 3-Pointers 27.0 33.5
Points From Free Throws 16.7 12.1
Shooting ARPB AFA
Field Goals Made 22.0 28.8
Field Goals Attempted 50.6 57.4
Field Goal % 43.5% 50.1%
2 Pointers Made 13.0 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 27.5 25.9
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 67.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 11.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 31.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.8% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 16.7 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 17.6
Free Throw % 75.0% 68.7%
Ball Control ARPB AFA
Rebounds 28.8 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.1 9.2
Turnovers 11.4 9.3
Blocked Shots 1.2 4.2
Steals 4.1 6.3
Fouls 15.5 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Ark Pine Bl

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARPB AFA
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 63.5 68.7
% of Possessions with ARPB AFA
2 Point Attempt 35.8% 33.0%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 40.1%
Player Fouled 23.7% 22.5%
Turnover 16.6% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARPB AFA
Shot Blocked 7.4% 2.5%
Offensive Rebound 19.4% 28.9%