NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARPB MARQ
Points 63.4 97.5
Total Points   160.9
Points From 2-Pointers 22.0 49.6
Points From 3-Pointers 29.7 34.4
Points From Free Throws 11.8 13.5
Shooting ARPB MARQ
Field Goals Made 20.9 36.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 64.0
Field Goal % 36.7% 56.6%
2 Pointers Made 11.0 24.8
2 Pointers Attempted 27.1 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 40.6% 74.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.9 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 29.8 30.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 11.8 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 19.6
Free Throw % 75.0% 69.1%
Ball Control ARPB MARQ
Rebounds 27.7 41.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 31.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 10.4
Turnovers 14.2 7.7
Blocked Shots 1.0 4.5
Steals 3.9 8.0
Fouls 14.8 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Ark Pine Bl

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARPB MARQ
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 76.4
% of Possessions with ARPB MARQ
2 Point Attempt 33.0% 39.5%
3 Point Attempt 36.3% 36.3%
Player Fouled 17.9% 20.1%
Turnover 19.3% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 10.8% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARPB MARQ
Shot Blocked 7.0% 1.8%
Offensive Rebound 17.5% 32.9%