NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARPB SOU
Points 68.9 76.8
Total Points   145.7
Points From 2-Pointers 23.1 40.4
Points From 3-Pointers 25.7 22.9
Points From Free Throws 20.0 13.5
Shooting ARPB SOU
Field Goals Made 20.1 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 48.9 60.2
Field Goal % 41.2% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 11.6 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 24.3 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 57.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 20.0 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 26.7 20.7
Free Throw % 75.0% 65.3%
Ball Control ARPB SOU
Rebounds 32.0 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.0 10.7
Turnovers 14.7 10.4
Blocked Shots 1.1 4.2
Steals 4.0 7.4
Fouls 15.6 19.4

Playing Style Advantage: Southern

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARPB SOU
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 64.6 73.6
% of Possessions with ARPB SOU
2 Point Attempt 30.1% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 29.4%
Player Fouled 26.5% 21.3%
Turnover 20.0% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARPB SOU
Shot Blocked 7.1% 2.3%
Offensive Rebound 18.5% 29.1%