NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARPB TEX
Points 63.4 94.7
Total Points   158.1
Points From 2-Pointers 25.4 53.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 25.7
Points From Free Throws 14.4 16.0
Shooting ARPB TEX
Field Goals Made 20.6 35.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 63.2
Field Goal % 37.4% 55.5%
2 Pointers Made 12.7 26.5
2 Pointers Attempted 32.2 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 39.5% 68.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 24.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 14.4 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 20.9
Free Throw % 75.0% 76.5%
Ball Control ARPB TEX
Rebounds 25.5 42.1
Rebounds - Defensive 19.8 30.9
Rebounds - Offensive 5.7 11.2
Turnovers 12.9 7.8
Blocked Shots 1.1 5.0
Steals 3.8 6.8
Fouls 15.5 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Ark Pine Bl

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARPB TEX
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 76.4
% of Possessions with ARPB TEX
2 Point Attempt 39.9% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 29.1%
Player Fouled 21.3% 21.2%
Turnover 17.7% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARPB TEX
Shot Blocked 8.0% 2.1%
Offensive Rebound 15.5% 36.2%