NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARPB PITT
Points 61.5 92.8
Total Points   154.4
Points From 2-Pointers 23.3 41.4
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 35.4
Points From Free Throws 13.0 16.0
Shooting ARPB PITT
Field Goals Made 20.1 32.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 64.9
Field Goal % 36.5% 50.1%
2 Pointers Made 11.7 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 27.5 32.3
2 Point Shooting % 42.4% 64.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 27.6 32.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 13.0 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 22.0
Free Throw % 75.0% 73.0%
Ball Control ARPB PITT
Rebounds 27.6 45.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 31.7
Rebounds - Offensive 5.0 13.5
Turnovers 11.9 6.0
Blocked Shots 1.1 5.6
Steals 3.0 6.4
Fouls 15.7 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Ark Pine Bl

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARPB PITT
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 64.4 78.7
% of Possessions with ARPB PITT
2 Point Attempt 35.1% 37.9%
3 Point Attempt 35.1% 38.3%
Player Fouled 20.1% 22.1%
Turnover 16.7% 8.5%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 4.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARPB PITT
Shot Blocked 8.6% 2.0%
Offensive Rebound 13.6% 37.4%