NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARPB JKST
Points 76.3 82.0
Total Points   158.3
Points From 2-Pointers 26.4 44.4
Points From 3-Pointers 34.2 22.6
Points From Free Throws 15.7 15.1
Shooting ARPB JKST
Field Goals Made 24.6 29.7
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 66.1
Field Goal % 44.0% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 13.2 22.2
2 Pointers Attempted 25.8 42.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 52.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.4 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 30.1 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 15.7 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 21.0
Free Throw % 75.0% 71.9%
Ball Control ARPB JKST
Rebounds 31.8 42.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 14.9
Turnovers 12.6 9.1
Blocked Shots 1.5 3.7
Steals 4.4 7.0
Fouls 14.4 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Jackson St

Expected Effect: +1.0 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARPB JKST
Total Possessions 74.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 79.9
% of Possessions with ARPB JKST
2 Point Attempt 31.3% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 36.6% 26.6%
Player Fouled 20.8% 19.4%
Turnover 17.0% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARPB JKST
Shot Blocked 5.6% 2.8%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 37.4%