NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FIU MSST
Points 62.6 84.4
Total Points   147.0
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 43.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.3 25.8
Points From Free Throws 9.6 15.3
Shooting FIU MSST
Field Goals Made 22.8 30.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 55.9
Field Goal % 39.0% 54.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.4 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 60.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 26.9 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 27.6% 42.3%
Free Throws Made 9.6 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.8 23.3
Free Throw % 65.0% 65.5%
Ball Control FIU MSST
Rebounds 24.9 43.7
Rebounds - Defensive 16.5 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 13.9
Turnovers 13.4 14.9
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.3
Steals 8.6 7.8
Fouls 16.0 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FIU MSST
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 71.5
% of Possessions with FIU MSST
2 Point Attempt 38.2% 40.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.6% 23.1%
Player Fouled 18.3% 22.1%
Turnover 18.5% 20.6%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 11.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken FIU MSST
Shot Blocked 6.1% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 45.7%