NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PEAY TNST
Points 76.2 73.3
Total Points   149.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 15.4
Points From Free Throws 19.3 19.3
Shooting PEAY TNST
Field Goals Made 25.1 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 51.7
Field Goal % 44.7% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 54.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 5.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 16.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 31.3%
Free Throws Made 19.3 19.3
Free Throws Attempted 27.3 25.3
Free Throw % 70.9% 76.1%
Ball Control PEAY TNST
Rebounds 32.8 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 8.9
Turnovers 8.7 11.8
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.4
Steals 7.2 4.1
Fouls 17.5 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: TN State

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PEAY TNST
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 72.6 67.2
% of Possessions with PEAY TNST
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 20.4%
Player Fouled 25.6% 24.9%
Turnover 12.4% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PEAY TNST
Shot Blocked 6.6% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 31.2% 29.0%