NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALBY UMBC
Points 85.6 85.6
Total Points   171.2
Points From 2-Pointers 46.3 55.3
Points From 3-Pointers 26.4 18.0
Points From Free Throws 12.9 12.3
Shooting ALBY UMBC
Field Goals Made 31.9 33.7
Field Goals Attempted 71.6 64.4
Field Goal % 44.6% 52.3%
2 Pointers Made 23.2 27.7
2 Pointers Attempted 44.0 45.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.6% 60.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 27.6 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 12.9 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 18.1
Free Throw % 73.9% 67.9%
Ball Control ALBY UMBC
Rebounds 39.1 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 13.4 8.3
Turnovers 10.6 12.3
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.2
Steals 8.5 4.7
Fouls 15.7 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: Albany

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALBY UMBC
Total Possessions 79.5
Effective Scoring Chances 82.3 75.5
% of Possessions with ALBY UMBC
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 51.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 21.3%
Player Fouled 15.4% 19.8%
Turnover 13.3% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALBY UMBC
Shot Blocked 6.6% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 32.1% 24.3%