NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TULN BUFF
Points 83.7 70.5
Total Points   154.3
Points From 2-Pointers 43.8 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 25.5
Points From Free Throws 17.9 11.8
Shooting TULN BUFF
Field Goals Made 29.2 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 60.1 62.9
Field Goal % 48.7% 39.9%
2 Pointers Made 21.9 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 40.6 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 54.0% 48.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 28.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 17.9 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 25.1 16.4
Free Throw % 71.6% 71.6%
Ball Control TULN BUFF
Rebounds 37.2 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 30.1 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 10.1
Turnovers 8.9 12.7
Blocked Shots 3.5 5.0
Steals 7.7 5.2
Fouls 12.7 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Buffalo

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TULN BUFF
Total Possessions 75.8
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 73.2
% of Possessions with TULN BUFF
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 32.5%
Player Fouled 21.2% 16.7%
Turnover 11.7% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken TULN BUFF
Shot Blocked 8.1% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 25.1%