NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring L-MD LAF
Points 59.6 66.4
Total Points   126.0
Points From 2-Pointers 28.0 36.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 20.7
Points From Free Throws 11.0 9.7
Shooting L-MD LAF
Field Goals Made 20.9 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 54.7
Field Goal % 38.2% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.0 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 33.7
2 Point Shooting % 41.1% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 11.0 9.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 14.2
Free Throw % 64.1% 68.2%
Ball Control L-MD LAF
Rebounds 36.3 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 6.3
Turnovers 11.6 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.0 4.8
Steals 5.4 6.5
Fouls 13.1 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Lafayette

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats L-MD LAF
Total Possessions 66.4
Effective Scoring Chances 65.1 63.3
% of Possessions with L-MD LAF
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 28.5%
Player Fouled 21.6% 19.7%
Turnover 17.5% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken L-MD LAF
Shot Blocked 8.8% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 28.1% 19.6%