NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring L-MD MSM
Points 66.1 69.9
Total Points   136.0
Points From 2-Pointers 29.3 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 25.5 20.1
Points From Free Throws 11.3 12.3
Shooting L-MD MSM
Field Goals Made 23.2 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 55.0
Field Goal % 40.0% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 14.7 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 30.7 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 27.2 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 11.3 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 17.4
Free Throw % 68.9% 71.0%
Ball Control L-MD MSM
Rebounds 32.8 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 9.5
Turnovers 10.6 12.4
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.1
Steals 8.2 6.7
Fouls 13.3 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats L-MD MSM
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 66.2
% of Possessions with L-MD MSM
2 Point Attempt 38.4% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 34.1% 24.4%
Player Fouled 20.4% 19.3%
Turnover 15.3% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken L-MD MSM
Shot Blocked 3.9% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 29.3%