NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONT UNCO
Points 79.9 77.1
Total Points   157.0
Points From 2-Pointers 40.5 45.9
Points From 3-Pointers 27.0 18.7
Points From Free Throws 12.3 12.5
Shooting MONT UNCO
Field Goals Made 29.3 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 59.9
Field Goal % 49.3% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 23.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 42.4
2 Point Shooting % 57.2% 54.2%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 12.3 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 15.4 16.7
Free Throw % 80.1% 74.6%
Ball Control MONT UNCO
Rebounds 32.6 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.5 6.8
Turnovers 8.7 8.0
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.3
Steals 4.3 5.2
Fouls 13.3 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Montana

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONT UNCO
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 69.6
% of Possessions with MONT UNCO
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 53.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 22.2%
Player Fouled 20.0% 18.8%
Turnover 12.3% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONT UNCO
Shot Blocked 3.9% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.5% 20.7%