NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONT NDSU
Points 81.2 72.2
Total Points   153.4
Points From 2-Pointers 46.6 39.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 18.0
Points From Free Throws 11.7 14.3
Shooting MONT NDSU
Field Goals Made 30.9 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 55.4
Field Goal % 54.0% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 23.3 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 61.5% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 16.0
3 Point Shooting % 39.3% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 11.7 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.7 19.2
Free Throw % 80.1% 74.1%
Ball Control MONT NDSU
Rebounds 30.7 29.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 22.3
Rebounds - Offensive 5.8 7.2
Turnovers 7.6 8.8
Blocked Shots 3.6 1.2
Steals 4.0 3.4
Fouls 14.9 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Montana

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONT NDSU
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 66.5
% of Possessions with MONT NDSU
2 Point Attempt 51.0% 51.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 20.9%
Player Fouled 19.3% 21.9%
Turnover 11.2% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 4.9% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONT NDSU
Shot Blocked 2.2% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 22.5%