NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONT NAU
Points 79.3 68.5
Total Points   147.8
Points From 2-Pointers 44.9 39.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 15.6
Points From Free Throws 15.2 13.5
Shooting MONT NAU
Field Goals Made 28.8 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 57.3
Field Goal % 50.7% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 22.5 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 40.5
2 Point Shooting % 59.8% 48.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 16.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 31.1%
Free Throws Made 15.2 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 19.5
Free Throw % 80.1% 69.2%
Ball Control MONT NAU
Rebounds 34.9 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 22.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 8.3
Turnovers 8.9 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.8
Steals 4.8 4.6
Fouls 15.0 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: N Arizona

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONT NAU
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 68.2 69.0
% of Possessions with MONT NAU
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 51.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 21.2%
Player Fouled 22.3% 21.5%
Turnover 12.8% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONT NAU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 23.3%