NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONT ARK
Points 61.3 81.2
Total Points   142.6
Points From 2-Pointers 30.1 46.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 14.8
Points From Free Throws 14.1 20.2
Shooting MONT ARK
Field Goals Made 20.8 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 53.6 58.2
Field Goal % 38.7% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 23.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 42.8
2 Point Shooting % 40.4% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 16.4 15.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 14.1 20.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 27.0
Free Throw % 78.4% 74.9%
Ball Control MONT ARK
Rebounds 28.7 39.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 5.5 10.9
Turnovers 15.6 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.4 5.3
Steals 3.5 7.4
Fouls 19.6 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONT ARK
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 63.8 74.9
% of Possessions with MONT ARK
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 20.1% 18.0%
Player Fouled 21.4% 26.5%
Turnover 21.2% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 4.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONT ARK
Shot Blocked 9.1% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 16.1% 32.1%