NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONT ARK
Points 73.6 79.7
Total Points   153.3
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 43.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.2 13.7
Points From Free Throws 15.9 22.5
Shooting MONT ARK
Field Goals Made 25.3 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 54.8
Field Goal % 43.1% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 41.2
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 13.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 15.9 22.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 29.4
Free Throw % 80.1% 76.5%
Ball Control MONT ARK
Rebounds 31.8 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 8.1
Turnovers 10.0 8.1
Blocked Shots 2.2 5.3
Steals 3.8 5.8
Fouls 18.9 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Montana

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONT ARK
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 72.5
% of Possessions with MONT ARK
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 50.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 16.8%
Player Fouled 22.6% 26.0%
Turnover 13.8% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONT ARK
Shot Blocked 9.7% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 24.7%