NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONT ARK
Points 65.8 74.6
Total Points   140.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 33.2
Points From 3-Pointers 14.0 16.7
Points From Free Throws 12.6 24.8
Shooting MONT ARK
Field Goals Made 24.3 22.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 47.9
Field Goal % 44.2% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 40.1 32.2
2 Point Shooting % 48.9% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 14.9 15.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 12.6 24.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 33.8
Free Throw % 68.1% 73.1%
Ball Control MONT ARK
Rebounds 31.7 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.1 5.5
Turnovers 13.5 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.0
Steals 4.2 6.7
Fouls 23.9 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONT ARK
Total Possessions 73.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 68.1
% of Possessions with MONT ARK
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 40.3%
3 Point Attempt 18.4% 19.6%
Player Fouled 23.0% 32.5%
Turnover 18.3% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONT ARK
Shot Blocked 6.3% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 17.9% 17.7%