NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IOWA DUKE
Points 76.6 85.1
Total Points   161.8
Points From 2-Pointers 45.8 41.8
Points From 3-Pointers 16.5 27.3
Points From Free Throws 14.3 16.0
Shooting IOWA DUKE
Field Goals Made 28.4 30.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 61.0
Field Goal % 47.8% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made 22.9 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.7 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 16.8 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 41.8%
Free Throws Made 14.3 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 22.3
Free Throw % 77.4% 71.6%
Ball Control IOWA DUKE
Rebounds 31.0 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 11.2
Turnovers 8.9 8.5
Blocked Shots 4.9 3.5
Steals 4.6 6.0
Fouls 13.6 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IOWA DUKE
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 73.9
% of Possessions with IOWA DUKE
2 Point Attempt 53.0% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 20.9% 25.8%
Player Fouled 21.0% 19.0%
Turnover 12.5% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken IOWA DUKE
Shot Blocked 5.8% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 32.7%