NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IOWA PUR
Points 72.7 87.9
Total Points   160.6
Points From 2-Pointers 42.3 44.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 24.9
Points From Free Throws 11.0 18.9
Shooting IOWA PUR
Field Goals Made 27.6 30.3
Field Goals Attempted 64.3 59.3
Field Goal % 43.0% 51.2%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 44.1 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.0% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 42.4%
Free Throws Made 11.0 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 14.2 25.9
Free Throw % 77.4% 73.0%
Ball Control IOWA PUR
Rebounds 27.9 43.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.0 30.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 13.0
Turnovers 7.5 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.1
Steals 5.6 4.9
Fouls 17.0 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IOWA PUR
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.4 75.5
% of Possessions with IOWA PUR
2 Point Attempt 54.3% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 22.7%
Player Fouled 17.2% 23.6%
Turnover 10.4% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken IOWA PUR
Shot Blocked 5.3% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 39.3%