NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IOWA OSU
Points 76.0 80.6
Total Points   156.5
Points From 2-Pointers 42.5 42.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 22.1
Points From Free Throws 15.3 16.4
Shooting IOWA OSU
Field Goals Made 27.3 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 62.8 60.9
Field Goal % 43.5% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 45.5 41.0
2 Point Shooting % 46.7% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 15.3 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 21.8
Free Throw % 77.4% 75.2%
Ball Control IOWA OSU
Rebounds 34.3 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 10.7
Turnovers 8.3 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.2
Steals 4.7 4.8
Fouls 15.5 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IOWA OSU
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 74.1
% of Possessions with IOWA OSU
2 Point Attempt 54.1% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 20.6% 23.6%
Player Fouled 20.9% 21.3%
Turnover 11.4% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken IOWA OSU
Shot Blocked 7.1% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 30.2%