NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IOWA UVA
Points 68.1 69.2
Total Points   137.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.7 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 17.9 20.9
Points From Free Throws 12.5 9.9
Shooting IOWA UVA
Field Goals Made 24.8 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 60.7
Field Goal % 42.8% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 42.1
2 Point Shooting % 49.1% 45.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 12.5 9.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 15.9
Free Throw % 77.4% 62.1%
Ball Control IOWA UVA
Rebounds 37.1 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 28.2 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 9.4
Turnovers 9.2 7.1
Blocked Shots 4.0 5.0
Steals 4.4 6.1
Fouls 11.5 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IOWA UVA
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 69.7
% of Possessions with IOWA UVA
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 53.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 23.7%
Player Fouled 19.1% 17.0%
Turnover 13.7% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken IOWA UVA
Shot Blocked 8.4% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 25.0%