NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IOWA ISU
Points 72.7 80.3
Total Points   152.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 43.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 22.1
Points From Free Throws 15.9 14.9
Shooting IOWA ISU
Field Goals Made 25.1 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 61.4
Field Goal % 45.5% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 42.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.8% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 15.9 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 21.0
Free Throw % 77.4% 70.8%
Ball Control IOWA ISU
Rebounds 33.1 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 11.2
Turnovers 12.5 8.8
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.3
Steals 5.3 8.6
Fouls 15.0 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa

Expected Effect: +1.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IOWA ISU
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 73.9
% of Possessions with IOWA ISU
2 Point Attempt 42.0% 50.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 22.4%
Player Fouled 21.7% 20.9%
Turnover 17.4% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 12.0% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken IOWA ISU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 31.3%