NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IOWA TCU
Points 81.5 83.2
Total Points   164.6
Points From 2-Pointers 45.6 44.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 21.6
Points From Free Throws 17.8 16.7
Shooting IOWA TCU
Field Goals Made 28.8 29.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 63.6
Field Goal % 49.5% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 22.8 22.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.8 45.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 39.7%
Free Throws Made 17.8 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 23.0 22.9
Free Throw % 77.4% 72.7%
Ball Control IOWA TCU
Rebounds 31.7 37.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 13.2
Turnovers 10.9 10.6
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.7
Steals 5.5 7.5
Fouls 14.5 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IOWA TCU
Total Possessions 75.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 77.6
% of Possessions with IOWA TCU
2 Point Attempt 48.5% 50.5%
3 Point Attempt 20.7% 20.2%
Player Fouled 21.9% 19.3%
Turnover 14.5% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken IOWA TCU
Shot Blocked 5.9% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 35.5%