NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IOWA NW
Points 79.0 80.2
Total Points   159.2
Points From 2-Pointers 42.6 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 27.4
Points From Free Throws 17.4 14.8
Shooting IOWA NW
Field Goals Made 27.6 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 60.0
Field Goal % 50.6% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.3 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 38.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.0% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 42.8%
Free Throws Made 17.4 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 19.6
Free Throw % 77.4% 75.6%
Ball Control IOWA NW
Rebounds 32.2 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 8.6
Turnovers 9.4 8.0
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.2
Steals 4.6 6.2
Fouls 15.0 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IOWA NW
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 71.2
% of Possessions with IOWA NW
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 26.3%
Player Fouled 22.7% 21.2%
Turnover 13.4% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken IOWA NW
Shot Blocked 5.5% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 25.1%