NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IOWA MICH
Points 84.7 78.4
Total Points   163.1
Points From 2-Pointers 49.4 38.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 24.7
Points From Free Throws 15.8 15.0
Shooting IOWA MICH
Field Goals Made 31.2 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 62.6 59.9
Field Goal % 49.8% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 24.7 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 45.0 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 15.8 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 21.1
Free Throw % 77.4% 70.8%
Ball Control IOWA MICH
Rebounds 33.6 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 10.6
Turnovers 7.6 11.3
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.2
Steals 6.8 3.9
Fouls 14.8 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IOWA MICH
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 74.5 72.6
% of Possessions with IOWA MICH
2 Point Attempt 53.9% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 25.0%
Player Fouled 21.0% 20.2%
Turnover 10.4% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 5.3% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken IOWA MICH
Shot Blocked 5.4% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 29.8%