NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMES NCAT
Points 64.8 66.3
Total Points   131.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 15.9
Points From Free Throws 12.0 16.3
Shooting UMES NCAT
Field Goals Made 23.7 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 56.0
Field Goal % 40.0% 39.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 40.5 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 45.5% 47.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 28.2% 26.4%
Free Throws Made 12.0 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 23.0
Free Throw % 71.8% 70.8%
Ball Control UMES NCAT
Rebounds 38.7 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 9.7
Turnovers 10.5 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.2
Steals 5.0 5.5
Fouls 16.0 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMES NCAT
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 70.0
% of Possessions with UMES NCAT
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 25.0%
Player Fouled 18.2% 23.0%
Turnover 15.2% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMES NCAT
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 25.8%