NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONM NCAT
Points 77.9 63.8
Total Points   141.7
Points From 2-Pointers 41.9 30.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 18.7
Points From Free Throws 13.2 15.1
Shooting MONM NCAT
Field Goals Made 28.5 21.2
Field Goals Attempted 62.0 57.3
Field Goal % 46.1% 37.1%
2 Pointers Made 21.0 15.0
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 42.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 28.7%
Free Throws Made 13.2 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 21.4
Free Throw % 71.6% 70.8%
Ball Control MONM NCAT
Rebounds 42.5 33.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.5 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 9.8
Turnovers 8.5 8.8
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.1
Steals 5.2 4.4
Fouls 14.9 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Monmouth

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONM NCAT
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 69.9
% of Possessions with MONM NCAT
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 27.0%
Player Fouled 18.3% 21.6%
Turnover 12.3% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONM NCAT
Shot Blocked 5.6% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 35.9% 24.8%