NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONM CIN
Points 62.6 81.0
Total Points   143.6
Points From 2-Pointers 31.3 40.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 27.5
Points From Free Throws 12.2 13.3
Shooting MONM CIN
Field Goals Made 22.0 29.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 63.6
Field Goal % 36.3% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 37.7
2 Point Shooting % 38.4% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 25.9
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 12.2 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 19.2
Free Throw % 71.6% 68.9%
Ball Control MONM CIN
Rebounds 31.5 46.6
Rebounds - Defensive 21.5 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 16.1
Turnovers 10.0 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.9 6.1
Steals 5.8 5.4
Fouls 13.5 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Cincinnati

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONM CIN
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 76.4
% of Possessions with MONM CIN
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 29.7%
Player Fouled 17.9% 19.3%
Turnover 14.3% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONM CIN
Shot Blocked 9.8% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 42.8%