NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STJOE SLU
Points 83.8 74.3
Total Points   158.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.5 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 35.3 24.8
Points From Free Throws 14.1 14.3
Shooting STJOE SLU
Field Goals Made 29.0 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 57.8
Field Goal % 47.9% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 29.3 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 58.9% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 11.8 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 31.2 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 14.1 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 19.1
Free Throw % 71.9% 75.1%
Ball Control STJOE SLU
Rebounds 35.0 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 8.9
Turnovers 8.6 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.4 3.4
Steals 6.8 5.5
Fouls 13.9 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STJOE SLU
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 69.0
% of Possessions with STJOE SLU
2 Point Attempt 35.7% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 38.1% 28.6%
Player Fouled 21.1% 19.6%
Turnover 12.1% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken STJOE SLU
Shot Blocked 6.0% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 26.1%