NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMES DUKE
Points 53.4 87.1
Total Points   140.5
Points From 2-Pointers 30.6 42.8
Points From 3-Pointers 12.9 26.2
Points From Free Throws 9.9 18.2
Shooting UMES DUKE
Field Goals Made 19.6 30.1
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 56.6
Field Goal % 34.6% 53.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 38.6% 63.1%
3 Pointers Made 4.3 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.0 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 25.3% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 9.9 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 13.8 25.4
Free Throw % 71.8% 71.5%
Ball Control UMES DUKE
Rebounds 26.7 42.5
Rebounds - Defensive 18.6 30.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 12.1
Turnovers 12.4 8.8
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.8
Steals 4.9 7.3
Fouls 15.8 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Duke

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMES DUKE
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 72.3
% of Possessions with UMES DUKE
2 Point Attempt 50.1% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 27.7%
Player Fouled 18.8% 23.0%
Turnover 18.0% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 10.5% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMES DUKE
Shot Blocked 8.5% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 39.4%