NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STJOE GW
Points 82.3 73.2
Total Points   155.5
Points From 2-Pointers 37.1 32.1
Points From 3-Pointers 34.5 27.8
Points From Free Throws 10.7 13.3
Shooting STJOE GW
Field Goals Made 30.0 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 66.6 59.8
Field Goal % 45.1% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 33.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 48.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 30.9 26.9
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 10.7 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.9 17.6
Free Throw % 71.9% 75.4%
Ball Control STJOE GW
Rebounds 39.0 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 28.1 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 8.4
Turnovers 8.4 11.0
Blocked Shots 4.4 4.4
Steals 6.8 5.5
Fouls 12.3 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: St Josephs

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STJOE GW
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 75.2 70.1
% of Possessions with STJOE GW
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 36.2% 32.4%
Player Fouled 17.0% 16.9%
Turnover 11.6% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken STJOE GW
Shot Blocked 7.6% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 23.1%