NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STJOE LAS
Points 79.7 69.8
Total Points   149.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 27.3 25.7
Points From Free Throws 13.4 9.6
Shooting STJOE LAS
Field Goals Made 28.6 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 63.0
Field Goal % 47.0% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.0% 46.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 24.1 25.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.8% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 13.4 9.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 13.5
Free Throw % 71.9% 71.6%
Ball Control STJOE LAS
Rebounds 39.7 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 29.2 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 9.6
Turnovers 8.9 9.2
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.8
Steals 5.2 5.7
Fouls 11.9 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: St Josephs

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STJOE LAS
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 72.0 70.8
% of Possessions with STJOE LAS
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 31.3%
Player Fouled 20.0% 16.9%
Turnover 12.6% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken STJOE LAS
Shot Blocked 6.1% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 24.8%