NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STJOE MASS
Points 75.0 73.9
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 39.6
Points From 3-Pointers 27.8 20.8
Points From Free Throws 14.3 13.6
Shooting STJOE MASS
Field Goals Made 25.7 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 61.4
Field Goal % 44.2% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 27.0 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 29.8%
Free Throws Made 14.3 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 19.9
Free Throw % 71.9% 68.2%
Ball Control STJOE MASS
Rebounds 35.0 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 13.7
Turnovers 10.9 10.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.5
Steals 6.4 6.7
Fouls 13.9 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: U Mass

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STJOE MASS
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 74.2
% of Possessions with STJOE MASS
2 Point Attempt 37.7% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.6% 27.1%
Player Fouled 21.8% 19.6%
Turnover 15.4% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken STJOE MASS
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 35.8%