NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMES GMU
Points 52.8 74.8
Total Points   127.6
Points From 2-Pointers 25.8 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 15.5 20.3
Points From Free Throws 11.4 17.3
Shooting UMES GMU
Field Goals Made 18.1 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 51.5
Field Goal % 32.9% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made 12.9 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 31.0
2 Point Shooting % 36.1% 60.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 27.0% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 11.4 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 23.4
Free Throw % 71.8% 74.1%
Ball Control UMES GMU
Rebounds 28.3 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 19.1 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 10.5
Turnovers 11.4 11.2
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.6
Steals 6.1 5.8
Fouls 17.0 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Geo Mason

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMES GMU
Total Possessions 67.1
Effective Scoring Chances 64.8 66.4
% of Possessions with UMES GMU
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 39.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 26.1%
Player Fouled 20.9% 25.4%
Turnover 17.0% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMES GMU
Shot Blocked 7.1% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 35.4%