NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STJOE GMU
Points 70.3 69.0
Total Points   139.2
Points From 2-Pointers 27.3 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 31.2 21.0
Points From Free Throws 11.7 13.5
Shooting STJOE GMU
Field Goals Made 24.1 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 55.2
Field Goal % 41.9% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 13.7 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 27.9 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.9% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 10.4 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 29.5 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 11.7 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 18.2
Free Throw % 71.9% 74.1%
Ball Control STJOE GMU
Rebounds 33.1 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 10.0
Turnovers 9.9 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.5
Steals 6.7 5.4
Fouls 14.0 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: St Josephs

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STJOE GMU
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 66.3
% of Possessions with STJOE GMU
2 Point Attempt 35.5% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 37.5% 27.4%
Player Fouled 20.9% 20.8%
Turnover 14.6% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken STJOE GMU
Shot Blocked 6.5% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 30.2%