NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONM SJU
Points 65.4 84.0
Total Points   149.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 42.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 24.8
Points From Free Throws 14.4 16.7
Shooting MONM SJU
Field Goals Made 22.2 29.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 62.3
Field Goal % 36.8% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 41.0 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 38.5% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 14.4 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 22.5
Free Throw % 71.6% 74.2%
Ball Control MONM SJU
Rebounds 31.9 44.6
Rebounds - Defensive 20.2 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 15.9
Turnovers 10.4 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.4 7.3
Steals 6.0 5.4
Fouls 14.7 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: St Johns

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONM SJU
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 77.0
% of Possessions with MONM SJU
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 26.3%
Player Fouled 21.1% 20.9%
Turnover 14.8% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONM SJU
Shot Blocked 11.9% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 44.2%