NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC
Points 64.2 81.5
Total Points   145.7
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 45.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.5 27.4
Points From Free Throws 6.8 8.9
Shooting UMBC
Field Goals Made 24.8 31.8
Field Goals Attempted 62.6 62.2
Field Goal % 39.6% 51.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 22.6
2 Pointers Attempted 35.2 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 27.4 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 28.6% 40.9%
Free Throws Made 6.8 8.9
Free Throws Attempted 11.1 13.0
Free Throw % 60.7% 67.9%
Ball Control UMBC
Rebounds 33.2 39.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 30.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 8.4
Turnovers 12.2 11.1
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.1
Steals 6.6 4.7
Fouls 12.5 11.1

Playing Style Advantage:

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 70.1
% of Possessions with UMBC
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 32.9% 27.1%
Player Fouled 15.3% 17.2%
Turnover 16.8% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 25.9%