NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONM STON
Points 71.5 73.4
Total Points   144.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.4 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 25.7 26.0
Points From Free Throws 13.4 14.4
Shooting MONM STON
Field Goals Made 24.8 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 62.3 57.9
Field Goal % 39.8% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 43.4% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 13.4 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 19.8
Free Throw % 71.6% 72.8%
Ball Control MONM STON
Rebounds 37.8 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 10.0
Turnovers 8.2 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.3
Steals 6.2 4.7
Fouls 14.2 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Stony Brook

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONM STON
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 70.1
% of Possessions with MONM STON
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 28.9%
Player Fouled 19.0% 20.3%
Turnover 11.8% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONM STON
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 30.0% 27.9%