NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).
Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until January 15; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONM MSU
Points 58.8 90.7
Total Points   149.5
Points From 2-Pointers 27.8 53.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.6 13.2
Points From Free Throws 11.4 23.8
Shooting MONM MSU
Field Goals Made 20.4 31.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 54.4
Field Goal % 33.5% 57.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.9 26.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 36.2% 75.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 4.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 23.4%
Free Throws Made 11.4 23.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 30.4
Free Throw % 71.5% 78.3%
Ball Control MONM MSU
Rebounds 26.9 42.7
Rebounds - Defensive 17.1 32.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 10.0
Turnovers 12.3 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.0 4.5
Steals 5.1 6.3
Fouls 20.4 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONM MSU
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 73.1
% of Possessions with MONM MSU
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 22.4%
Player Fouled 17.5% 27.9%
Turnover 16.9% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONM MSU
Shot Blocked 8.3% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 36.9%