NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCRV UCD
Points 72.4 68.3
Total Points   140.7
Points From 2-Pointers 31.8 33.4
Points From 3-Pointers 24.9 18.6
Points From Free Throws 15.7 16.2
Shooting UCRV UCD
Field Goals Made 24.2 22.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 56.3
Field Goal % 41.1% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.2% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 15.7 16.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 21.5
Free Throw % 76.5% 75.3%
Ball Control UCRV UCD
Rebounds 39.7 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 9.3
Turnovers 11.4 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.4
Steals 4.8 5.4
Fouls 17.6 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: UC Riverside

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCRV UCD
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 69.7
% of Possessions with UCRV UCD
2 Point Attempt 42.5% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 23.1%
Player Fouled 21.4% 24.9%
Turnover 16.1% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCRV UCD
Shot Blocked 6.1% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 34.0% 25.6%