NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCRV UCD
Points 70.7 78.2
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 22.1
Points From Free Throws 14.9 19.3
Shooting UCRV UCD
Field Goals Made 24.6 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 54.7
Field Goal % 45.1% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 14.9 19.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 26.3
Free Throw % 71.2% 73.3%
Ball Control UCRV UCD
Rebounds 33.6 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 8.1
Turnovers 14.2 10.9
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.4
Steals 4.5 7.2
Fouls 19.8 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCRV UCD
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 70.4
% of Possessions with UCRV UCD
2 Point Attempt 41.2% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 22.8%
Player Fouled 21.4% 27.1%
Turnover 19.4% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCRV UCD
Shot Blocked 4.4% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 24.6%