NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCRV SDSU
Points 62.1 79.3
Total Points   141.4
Points From 2-Pointers 25.0 41.6
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 21.0
Points From Free Throws 12.3 16.7
Shooting UCRV SDSU
Field Goals Made 20.8 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 55.1
Field Goal % 34.6% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 12.5 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.6 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 38.4% 59.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 27.4 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 12.3 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 22.7
Free Throw % 71.1% 73.7%
Ball Control UCRV SDSU
Rebounds 32.8 39.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 9.2
Turnovers 9.7 8.8
Blocked Shots 1.0 4.3
Steals 4.7 5.1
Fouls 17.3 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: UC Riverside

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCRV SDSU
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 69.4
% of Possessions with UCRV SDSU
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 33.5% 25.8%
Player Fouled 21.5% 25.0%
Turnover 14.1% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCRV SDSU
Shot Blocked 7.9% 1.6%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 29.6%