NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCRV NEB
Points 67.6 84.6
Total Points   152.1
Points From 2-Pointers 27.6 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 29.3 28.6
Points From Free Throws 10.6 15.8
Shooting UCRV NEB
Field Goals Made 23.6 29.6
Field Goals Attempted 64.7 56.2
Field Goal % 36.5% 52.6%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 31.8
2 Point Shooting % 41.5% 63.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.8 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 31.4 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 10.6 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.0 20.8
Free Throw % 71.1% 76.0%
Ball Control UCRV NEB
Rebounds 34.6 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 31.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 7.0
Turnovers 8.8 9.0
Blocked Shots 1.3 2.5
Steals 4.8 4.1
Fouls 15.5 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: UC Riverside

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCRV NEB
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 74.2 69.1
% of Possessions with UCRV NEB
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 40.5%
3 Point Attempt 37.3% 31.1%
Player Fouled 17.7% 21.8%
Turnover 12.4% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCRV NEB
Shot Blocked 4.5% 2.0%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 23.7%