NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring RAD JMU
Points 67.0 80.9
Total Points   147.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.4 40.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 26.2
Points From Free Throws 12.9 14.0
Shooting RAD JMU
Field Goals Made 23.9 29.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 62.2
Field Goal % 42.0% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 47.1% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 25.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 12.9 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 20.1
Free Throw % 73.7% 69.7%
Ball Control RAD JMU
Rebounds 33.3 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 12.7
Turnovers 11.6 8.2
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.8
Steals 4.3 6.1
Fouls 14.5 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: James Mad

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats RAD JMU
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.1 74.6
% of Possessions with RAD JMU
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 24.1% 30.2%
Player Fouled 19.9% 20.7%
Turnover 16.6% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken RAD JMU
Shot Blocked 4.5% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 34.8%