NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCRV SMC
Points 57.4 79.6
Total Points   137.0
Points From 2-Pointers 28.3 44.8
Points From 3-Pointers 17.3 22.5
Points From Free Throws 11.9 12.2
Shooting UCRV SMC
Field Goals Made 19.9 29.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 56.0
Field Goal % 35.9% 53.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.1 22.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 38.2% 61.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 11.9 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 18.2
Free Throw % 71.1% 67.1%
Ball Control UCRV SMC
Rebounds 26.7 40.9
Rebounds - Defensive 20.1 31.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 9.7
Turnovers 8.4 8.5
Blocked Shots 1.0 4.1
Steals 4.3 4.5
Fouls 14.6 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: UC Riverside

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCRV SMC
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 64.8 67.8
% of Possessions with UCRV SMC
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.6% 25.6%
Player Fouled 22.4% 22.0%
Turnover 12.6% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCRV SMC
Shot Blocked 7.4% 1.9%
Offensive Rebound 17.7% 32.7%