NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCRV CSUS
Points 70.3 67.8
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.6 33.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 21.7
Points From Free Throws 12.5 12.2
Shooting UCRV CSUS
Field Goals Made 25.0 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 52.1
Field Goal % 43.5% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 31.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 12.5 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 17.1
Free Throw % 71.1% 71.7%
Ball Control UCRV CSUS
Rebounds 31.6 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 8.8
Turnovers 7.8 11.9
Blocked Shots 1.4 2.6
Steals 5.9 3.5
Fouls 14.7 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Sac State

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCRV CSUS
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.2 63.4
% of Possessions with UCRV CSUS
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 40.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 27.8%
Player Fouled 22.7% 22.1%
Turnover 11.7% 17.9%
Opponent Steal 5.2% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCRV CSUS
Shot Blocked 5.1% 2.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 28.5%