NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCRV CP
Points 72.4 66.2
Total Points   138.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 18.6
Points From Free Throws 15.7 12.5
Shooting UCRV CP
Field Goals Made 24.9 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 53.7
Field Goal % 41.7% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 15.7 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 17.6
Free Throw % 71.1% 70.9%
Ball Control UCRV CP
Rebounds 39.4 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 6.5
Turnovers 8.5 10.6
Blocked Shots 1.3 3.3
Steals 5.3 3.4
Fouls 15.7 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCRV CP
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 73.3 64.7
% of Possessions with UCRV CP
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 23.3%
Player Fouled 23.4% 22.8%
Turnover 12.4% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 5.0% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCRV CP
Shot Blocked 6.3% 2.3%
Offensive Rebound 33.9% 19.6%