NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NJIT UMBC
Points 72.7 79.4
Total Points   152.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 43.5
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 24.2
Points From Free Throws 12.5 11.7
Shooting NJIT UMBC
Field Goals Made 26.0 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 68.3 61.8
Field Goal % 38.1% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 28.3 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.9% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 12.5 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 17.2
Free Throw % 72.1% 67.9%
Ball Control NJIT UMBC
Rebounds 39.5 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 31.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.2 8.7
Turnovers 8.8 11.0
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.4
Steals 7.5 3.8
Fouls 15.3 12.0

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland BC

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NJIT UMBC
Total Possessions 74.5
Effective Scoring Chances 79.0 72.3
% of Possessions with NJIT UMBC
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 26.5%
Player Fouled 16.1% 20.6%
Turnover 11.7% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NJIT UMBC
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.6% 24.9%