NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WKU MTU
Points 76.6 69.4
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 45.6 28.7
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 25.5
Points From Free Throws 13.8 15.2
Shooting WKU MTU
Field Goals Made 28.5 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.6 57.7
Field Goal % 44.8% 39.6%
2 Pointers Made 22.8 14.3
2 Pointers Attempted 46.5 30.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 27.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 13.8 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 21.3
Free Throw % 72.7% 71.4%
Ball Control WKU MTU
Rebounds 39.0 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 29.0 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.1
Turnovers 10.3 13.4
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.6
Steals 6.4 4.6
Fouls 16.3 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: W Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WKU MTU
Total Possessions 75.1
Effective Scoring Chances 74.7 70.8
% of Possessions with WKU MTU
2 Point Attempt 53.5% 35.7%
3 Point Attempt 19.7% 31.7%
Player Fouled 19.3% 21.7%
Turnover 13.8% 17.8%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken WKU MTU
Shot Blocked 8.1% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 23.8%