NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WKU MTU
Points 71.6 77.7
Total Points   149.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.1 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 25.0
Points From Free Throws 14.1 16.3
Shooting WKU MTU
Field Goals Made 25.5 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 63.0 61.1
Field Goal % 40.5% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.8 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.7% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 27.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 14.1 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 24.5
Free Throw % 72.9% 66.5%
Ball Control WKU MTU
Rebounds 36.2 43.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 31.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 11.5
Turnovers 9.6 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.5
Steals 6.4 5.4
Fouls 16.1 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: W Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WKU MTU
Total Possessions 75.2
Effective Scoring Chances 74.0 76.3
% of Possessions with WKU MTU
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 37.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 31.8%
Player Fouled 19.9% 21.5%
Turnover 12.8% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken WKU MTU
Shot Blocked 7.5% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 29.3%