NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WKU LOU
Points 79.6 77.6
Total Points   157.2
Points From 2-Pointers 43.0 40.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 18.6
Points From Free Throws 15.2 18.7
Shooting WKU LOU
Field Goals Made 28.6 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 56.7
Field Goal % 48.3% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 21.5 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.8 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 54.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 15.2 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 25.2
Free Throw % 72.7% 74.2%
Ball Control WKU LOU
Rebounds 33.9 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 8.1
Turnovers 12.7 12.7
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.5
Steals 8.0 5.8
Fouls 18.9 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: W Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WKU LOU
Total Possessions 76.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 72.0
% of Possessions with WKU LOU
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 22.8%
Player Fouled 20.8% 24.7%
Turnover 16.6% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken WKU LOU
Shot Blocked 6.3% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 23.8%